Trump is withholding support for Netanyahu as his campaign encounters problems.

- Axios reporter Barak Ravid

When Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump met at the Oval Office two weeks ago, the U.S. president asked the Israeli prime minister how he was doing in the polls ahead of the Oct. 27 election.

Netanyahu paused. Then one of his advisers stepped in and, according to a U.S. official familiar with the conversation, said: “Mr. President, he is winning.”

Why it matters: Netanyahu is not winning. And so far, despite questions from reporters repeatedly, Trump has not announced the support Netanyahu is hoping to receive.

Trump could still change his mind. But only 75 days remain until the election, and time is running out for Netanyahu.

Current situation: Netanyahu’s current coalition holds between 49 and 53 seats in these polls—far less than the 68 seats currently held and the 61 seats needed to form a government.

By contrast, the parties that oppose Netanyahu have between 67 and 70 seats. Gadi Eisenkot, the former head of the Israeli army staff and Netanyahu’s main rival, is seen as more popular in most polls.

But Netanyahu doesn’t necessarily have to be the winner. He only needs to avoid losing.

His main effort right now is to secure enough votes to prevent his opponents from forming a government without the support of Israel’s Arab parties.

If he succeeds and neither side can form a government, Netanyahu will remain in office as acting prime minister for several more months until another election is held.

For now, this is a real possibility.

The main story: In the first weeks of the war with Iran, some of Trump’s close advisers were confident that he would back Netanyahu.

At the time, Trump was openly supporting granting Netanyahu a pardon to end his corruption trial.

But as time passed and the war became stuck in a stalemate, Trump’s foreign-policy goals and Netanyahu’s, as well as their domestic political interests, started to diverge.

Over the past three months, the gap between them on various issues— not only Iran, but also Lebanon and Gaza—has grown larger and larger.

Two senior U.S. officials said that although Trump personally likes Netanyahu, he has become disappointed with his decisions and policies.

According to two people who have spoken recently with Trump about Netanyahu, Trump has said: “Big Bibi is his own biggest enemy.”

Details: The latest development that has strained their relationship was Netanyahu’s public rejection of Trump’s “Gaza Peace Board” plan, under which Hamas would be disarmed.

A senior U.S. official said the White House views Netanyahu’s remarks on Sunday as more driven by electoral considerations than necessarily as a political position.

This American official said: “We understand Bibi’s political needs. As long as he continues to comply with our requests—especially when it comes to curbing attacks in Gaza—we have no problem with it.”

Another U.S. official said Netanyahu spoke by phone last week with Jared Kushner, Trump’s envoy, and despite his doubts promised to give the peace-board plan an opportunity. He also committed to reducing attacks on Gaza so that the process of de-militarizing civilians can begin.

Since then, Israel has carried out far fewer attacks on Gaza, and the Israel Defense Forces have pulled back to the Yellow Line— the line that, according to the agreement, Israeli forces were supposed to be stationed on.

According to four sources familiar with the matter, Kushner plans to visit Israel next week to discuss the Gaza plan with Netanyahu and other officials.

Behind the scenes: Several of Netanyahu’s political rivals, including Eisenkot and former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, have expressed concern that Trump may support the current Israeli prime minister. Two of their aides told Axios.

According to two sources familiar with their efforts, these opposing figures sent indirect messages to Trump and his advisers—through shared contacts, financial donors, and other political allies—asking the president to remain neutral.

A former senior American official who was briefed on the situation claimed that Netanyahu’s weakness in the polls has led Trump to refrain from intervening in his election.

Still: Trump has been very popular in Israel, but his popularity has declined over the past three months due to the Iran deal he signed and his decision to pull back from the war after the agreement was violated. Israelis have also been unhappy with the limits Trump placed on Israeli military operations in Iran, Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon.

Trump’s remarks: In recent weeks, reporters have asked Trump four times whether he supports Netanyahu. Each time, he has avoided making an explicit endorsement.

In July, radio host Hugh Hewitt asked Trump: “Is there someone in Israel who’s better to do this than him?” The president deflected from a direct answer and said: “Well, I don’t know most of them. I know some of them, of course, but I don’t know most of them.” He was referring to Netanyahu’s opponents.

In several recent interviews, Trump has described Netanyahu as the “great wartime prime minister,” but each time he has used the title in the past tense.

Israeli officials said that in his most recent meeting with Netanyahu in private settings, Trump raised the issue of his pardon, but the U.S. president has not spoken about it publicly for months.

What to watch: Israel’s election is very important to Trump’s Middle East agenda during the last two years of his presidency— especially at a time when the Iran crisis is in a state of “not a deal, not a war.”

Trump also wants to advance his Gaza peace plan, make progress in negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, finalize a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and, most importantly, mediate a historic peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Trump and his team have deep damage and concern from Israel’s 2019 political crisis, which led to three consecutive elections and the loss of a year in Middle East diplomacy.

A senior U.S. official said the White House will not repeat past mistakes and will not allow Israel’s internal politics to stop America’s regional plan.

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