Amir Mohammad Golvani, an economist, in an interview with the Aous website, warned that if current conditions persist or military clashes return, the dollar exchange rate could end the year up to 25 to 50 percent higher than its current level.

He said the rise in the exchange rate is due to chronic inflation, growth in liquidity, war damages, export restrictions, and the continuation of economic siege, and added that the increase in the dollar—by raising the cost of imports and inflationary expectations—will put additional pressure on prices and on households’ livelihoods.

Golvani said that the simultaneous pressure of war and sanctions targets production capacity, foreign exchange earnings, and market stability, and has made the outlook for the exchange rate more dependent than ever on political and security developments.

He added that about 20 percent of Iran’s gas production capacity and 20 percent of its gasoline production capacity have been lost, and the country’s industry has suffered losses amounting to tens of billions of dollars.

According to Golvani, only a political opening or a large-scale agreement could change expectations; otherwise, growth in liquidity, intensified inflation, and reduced export capacity will further increase upward pressure on the exchange rate.