Haaretz, in an analysis, wrote that a sharp drop in Iran’s oil exports could limit the financial resources of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security agencies and increase the likelihood of regime change, although the realization of this scenario is not certain.

David Rosenberg, an analyst at Haaretz, wrote that the new U.S. economic campaign differs from past sanctions because Iran’s oil exports have nearly stopped, and the government is losing one of its most important sources of income.

According to him, the worsening of public living conditions alone is not enough to change the behavior of the government; the determining factor is the Islamic Republic’s ability to finance its military and security forces. Haaretz, citing an analysis by Reuters, wrote that the IRGC, before the war, controlled up to 50% of Iran’s oil trade, and oil revenue plays a role in covering the salaries and equipment of security forces.

The analysis added that a decline in oil revenues could limit the government’s ability to maintain the loyalty of these forces and suppress protests. However, it is still unclear how many alternative resources the Islamic Republic has, and whether economic pressure could lead to a rift within the power structure.