Haaretz: It is unlikely that the Netanyahu government’s belief that Israel’s long-term occupation of parts of southern Lebanon will create long-term calm in northern Israel will hold. Despite Israel’s military achievements against Hezbollah since October 2023, including weakening its military capabilities and killing its former leader Hassan Nasrallah and his successor, the group has demonstrated that it cannot be disarmed solely through military force.

Israel’s military presence could undermine its strategic gains by weakening the Lebanese government and army and allow Hezbollah to revive its role as a resistance movement that defends Lebanon against Israeli territory. Joseph Aoun’s election as president creates an opportunity for closer alignment between Israeli and Lebanese interests in reducing Hezbollah’s independent power.

The proposed option is not unconditional withdrawal by Israel, but a broader strategy that combines continued actions against immediate threats with diplomacy involving the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other players. Israel’s gradual withdrawal could be part of a wider agreement focused on strengthening Lebanon’s state institutions and reducing Hezbollah’s military and political influence, rather than allowing Israel’s continued deployment to become a new source of support for this group.