War, a deal, or the continuation of the deadlock? Scenarios ahead for Iran and the United States

🔸Two months ago, Masoud Pezeshkian and Donald Trump, the presidents of Iran and the United States, signed a memorandum of understanding that was supposed to end the 40-day war. A 60-day period was set for the two countries to discuss Iran’s nuclear program, the lifting of sanctions, and reaching a more durable agreement.

🔸Now, this deadline has ended without any agreement having been reached. A ceasefire has also effectively disappeared; Iran’s maritime blockade continues, and tension in the Strait of Hormuz remains in place.

🔸This suspension has made the uncertainty and ambiguity about the future even stronger for many Iranians, while also highlighting the question: “In the end, what will happen—war or a deal?”

🔸Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, describes current conditions as a new phase of a “war of wills” between Tehran and Washington.

🔸Mr. Vaez tells Radio Farda: “Both Iran and the United States think that time is moving in their favor and that economic pressure will soften the other side’s position. So both sides are waiting for pressure on the other side to take effect and for it to deliver the outcome they want.”

🔸But this calculation looks different in Tehran and Washington. It appears that the White House is hoping that the continuation of the maritime blockade and economic pressure will force the Islamic Republic to retreat from part of its positions—especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz—and regarding the order of implementation of the commitments, where the two sides found disagreement in the previous memorandum.

🔸In Tehran, however, officials hope that things like increased energy costs, disruption in the oil market, and the approach of the U.S. midterm elections will add more pressure on the United States and ultimately push Trump to backtrack on part of his positions.

🔸Read the full version of this report on Radio Farda’s website.