The U.S. Energy Information Administration says that over the past month, daily oil production in the Middle East fell to about 5.5 million barrels compared with the period before the Middle East war, and that even if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is allowed again until the end of this year, a full recovery of oil production in some of these countries is unlikely by the end of 2027.

Based on this report, severe restrictions on oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to continue in the current month as well.

The report adds that even if the situation of maritime trade in the Strait of Hormuz returns to pre-war conditions, the regional daily drop of 600,000 barrels in oil production will continue through the end of next year.

The report also raises its forecast for oil prices compared with its previous month’s report, and says it expects the benchmark Brent oil price to be close to 87 this year, which is five dollars higher than the EIA’s estimate from the previous month, but that in 2027 this figure will fall to around 69 dollars.