The International Energy Agency predicted that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and an increase in fuel prices would reduce global oil demand in 2026 by 1.6 million barrels per day. However, the agency expects demand to rise in 2027 by 2.4 million barrels per day as market conditions improve.

Based on the agency’s August report, the decline in demand in the second half of 2026 will gradually lessen, and in the final quarter of the year, growth in oil consumption will begin again. The agency also updated its estimate of the supply shortfall in the third quarter of 2026 to 1.8 million barrels per day; a figure that is more than double the projection from last month.

The International Energy Agency said that visible oil inventories worldwide fell by 69 million barrels in July and, since the end of February, have been reduced by a total of 410 million barrels. According to the agency, the rapid decline in inventories has increased the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although it is expected that the market may face a surplus again toward the end of the year.